Australian Open Men's Tennis Betting Preview (Outright)
- Al Ross
- Jan 14
- 1 min read
Al Ross looks past the noise around Novak Djokovic to find the value in the Australian Open men's tennis markets
Novak Djokovic’s will always get headlines and Jannick Sinner rightly comes in as favourite, but these two men are taking up around 60% of the market between them.
Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, enters the tournament at 7/2, meaning the markets give him around a 22% chance of winning. The Spaniard is the current Champion of two slams, and the new Olympic silver medallist, but – like a young Nadal - there are questions about how well he adapts to other conditions. A 2nd round loss to Botic van de Zandschulp in the 2nd round of the US Open last year springs to mind.
Clay is where Alcaraz is happiest, but clay is the slowest of the surfaces, the Australian Open hard court is noticeably slower than the US and much slower than the grass of Wimbledon, so in the long-run this should become his 2nd-favourite slam.
Alexander Zverev is the biggest hurdle in his half of the draw, but Zverev’s Slam record is well known. Never a finalist here in 10 attempts, and only 3 times has he got past the fourth round - plus Alcaraz has won their last 3 head-to-head encounters.
Pre-tournament, Alcaraz was 7/2 (4.5 in decimal) to win, and in doing so become the youngest Career Slam holder in history. For someone with his level of talent, that’s too big a price to ignore.
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