He doesn't usually back the favourite, but Al Ross makes an exception for Sabalenka in Melbourne
There's value throughout the draw, but if you're offering me almost 3-and-a-half times my money to back a tournament win, then honestly it’s hard for me to look past Aryna Sabalenka, but not because of the headline narrative that she could be the first woman since Martina Hingis to win 3 Australian Opens in a row. She comes in as the 2-time defending champion, as the world number one, the winner of both Cincinnati and the US Open in August, Wuhan in October, and Brisbane in the build up to this. Outside of the World Tour Finals, that’s 4 titles and one defeat in 5 tournaments.
It's also three wins from the last four hard-court Grand Slam tournaments, with the 2023 US Open the only defeat.
Outside of Sabalenka, you could make cases for Iga Swaitek and Coco Gauff, though neither have good records in Melbourne. That said, Gauff is certainly in form, though she’s in Sabalenka’s half of the draw. If Sabalenka were to suffer a shock exit, I’d certainly be looking at the Gauff for the title. In fact, a lot of my alternative picks – like Gauff and Qinwen Zheng – are in Sabalenka’s half of the draw – and that means the bottom half looks weak outside of Swiatek.
I’d be looking at the likes of in-form Madison Keys and 3-time Slam finalist Ons Jabeur to reach the final. Their pre-tournament outrights were upwards of 66/1 so there’s real value there. But as boring as it sounds, my money’s on the favourite for the title.
Aryna Sabalena. pre-tournament odds of 12/5 Fractional / 3.4 Decimal.
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