Manchester City v Aston Villa - the crunch Champions League Tuesday EPL face-off
- James M Buttler
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
James Buttler hunts out the very best bet for Tuesday's crucial Premier League encounter between sides battling for a place in next season's Champions League.
European places are at stake as Manchester City host Aston Villa in a crucial Premier League clash between two Champions League hopefuls. Just a few points separate third from sixth, and City are hitting form at the perfect time with a six-game unbeaten streak (W4, D2), including a comfortable 2-0 win at Everton last weekend.
Back at the Etihad, City are a formidable force, having won eight of their 11 home games in 2025. Only Liverpool and Real Madrid have managed to leave with victory this year. History is firmly on Pep Guardiola’s side — City have won the last 14 home league meetings with Villa, scoring at least twice in the last 13.
Villa, however, are in red-hot form themselves. Unai Emery’s side bounced back from Champions League disappointment by thrashing Newcastle 4-1, extending their league winning streak to five. Yet, their away record against fellow top-seven sides this season is poor (D1, L4), and they’ll need to defy history to come away with anything here.
That said, Villa have won their last three away league matches without conceding. A fourth would be historic — they’ve never achieved four consecutive Premier League away wins with clean sheets. Ollie Watkins is chasing a club record, needing just one more goal to become Villa’s all-time top Premier League scorer.
Given City’s dominant home record and Villa’s tendency to struggle against elite opposition away, backing a City win with over 2.5 goals looks a solid value pick. Expect fireworks early — Etihad fixtures average 2.38 goals before half-time.
Man City and over 2.5 match goals is 7/5 with BetFred.
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