Al Ross has been covering African football for over a decade and looks at the contenders for the biggest prize on the continent.
10 host nations have won this tournament in the past and 4 have finished as runners-up, so you’d quite often give the favourites tag to a home nation, and that’s the case here. The fact it’s a Morocco side that reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup makes their case even stronger. Hakim Ziyech, Sofyan Amrabat, Noussair Mazraoui, Achraf Hakimi, Romain Saiss, Brahim Diaz… It’s a strong squad with an excellent recent record. Mali, Zambia and Comoros should provide little opposition in the group stage too. Even though the best price of 3/1 with WilliamHill.com is a short price, it’s still arguably too big.
Algeria are second favourites at 6/1 across the board. I genuinely don’t know why. Riyad Mahrez will be almost 35 and has been playing in the Saudi Pro League, and there’s no other player of his quality in the squad. I always place a large emphasis on climate in Africa - as the conditions vary so much over such a vast continent and there’s a definite split between North and Sub-Saharan climates, so they've got the conditions on their side, but that doesn’t matter if you don’t have the players of the relevant quality.
Like Algeria, Egypt are also 6/1 in most places and are pinning their hopes on an outstanding winger. But while the record seven-time winning nation have Mo Salah and the rising star of Manchester City, Omar Marmoush, to call on - that’s pretty much it for their roster’s quality depth. The rest of the squad almost all play in the Egyptian League. In club terms, Al Ahly in particular are a dominant force in Africa, but a lack of experience in the bigger leagues outside Africa is likely to be their undoing.
If you’re looking for a Sub-Saharan winner, then West Africa is the most likely place to provide one, and I think 2021 champions Senegal would make a great pick at 7/1 with WilliamHill.com. Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Pape Matar Sarr, Idrissa Gueye - all supporting an attack of Iliman Ndiaye, Nicolas Jackson and Sadio Mane. DR Congo, Benin and Botswana are as easy a group as they could have hoped for too, and if they win the group they face a 3rd-placed side in the first knockout round.
It’s not the most impressive front line at the tournament, though. That’s Nigeria. Kelechi Iheanacho and Ademola Lookman supporting the lethal Victor Osimhen. The problem is that once you move backwards from there past Wilfried Ndidi and Alex Iwobi in Midfield, there’s a soft underbelly to this side. Bright Osayi-Samuel, Ola Aina and Calvin Bassey are capable Premier League defenders but no more than capable. At the time of writing, the only Nigeria operating at a high level, Maduka Okoye, has been struck off Udinese’s squad for the rest of the season after allegations of match fixing - allegations he denies. Nigeria are 8/1 best price with Bet365.com. They'll attract money with that front line, but I think they'll lose it with that backline just as easily. Tunisia’s presence in their group means I think it’ll be tricky for them from the off.
I’m going to gloss over Ivory Coast (12/1 with 888.com) and Mali (14/1 with Unibet.co.uk) as I don’t give them a realistic chance in this tournament and head to...
Cameroon. Andre Onana may be under scrutiny in the Premier League, but I still think he's Africa’s best goalkeeper. With him, and a front line containing Vincent Aboubakar and Bryan Mbuemo, it’s hard to write them off. They’re light on quality in some other areas, and people will be slow to back them because they are in the same group as Ivory Coast, but I don’t see the Ivorians as a threat this tournament, so Cameroon are definitely worth their outsider price of 16/1 with QuinnBet.com
Tunisia are also interesting, but for different reasons. Like Cameroon, they’re best-priced 16/1 with WilliamHill.com. The squad is drawn largely from the (in African terms) very strong Tunisian league, with several others playing in Southern Europe. The players aren’t household names - Wahbi Khazri was their biggest name and he’s internationally retired - but I’m expecting a team capable of grinding others to a standstill. Goals will be the issue, but like South Korea in the World Cup 2002 or Greece in Euro 2004, sometimes a team comes along with a team ethic that makes you sit up and take notice, and if that happens here, it’ll be Tunisia.Every other team is 40/1 or bigger and shouldn't pose a realistic threat.
The Verdict
I think Morocco are utterly deserving of the favourites tag, and are more than backable at 3/1. They’ve an easy group and an easy knockout draw; if they do top their group, they can’t face another group winner until the Semi-Finals.
If it’s not Morocco, then I’d look at Senegal at 7/1 and Cameroon 16/1. Brilliantly, those West African nations are in groups D and F, so wouldn’t play the winners of Morocco’s group (which you’d assume will be Morocco) until the Final, which means you can pick them up each-way at a decent price, and both look way too big.
5 Units on Morocco 3/12 Units on Senegal E/W at 7/12 Units on Cameroon E/W at 16/1
Or you can wait until markets become available for Senegal and Cameroon to reach the Final/reach the semi-final respectively.
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