So much firepower on display, yet Al Ross sets his sights away from the goals markets...
I might be wrong - this could be a dull 0-0, or a tight and scrappy affair – but it’s hard to justify that view. I think it’s more likely that this could be a modern classic.
With City’s attack firing on all cylinders again, a Real Madrid side without first choice defenders Lucas Vazquez, and probably Antontio Rudiger and David Alaba, would be foolish to rely on a backline which is likely to feature midfielder Aurélien Tchouameni and youngster Raúl Asencio, who only turned 22 last week.
City trail 3-2 on aggregate need to attack. Real Madrid’s frail defence means I can only think will need to attack too. I can see both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, but there’s no value there – let me take you to a lesser known market. Total Shots.
Neither Man City nor Real Madrid had a good group stage campaign and yet Erling Haaland has had 30 shots in the Champions League so far, and Kylian Mbappe 25. That’s first and second in the shots table of any player in any Champions League side this season. Vinicius Junior is also in the top 10 of that list, and Phil Foden just outside it. The usual spread for a match is around 23.5 shots. The spread here is 27.5, but I’m happy to go higher. Betway will give you 6/4 on over 30.5 shots and 3/1 on over 33.5, and I will take both.
Istvan Kovacs was the man who gave out a European Championship record 18 yellow cards for the game between Czech Republic and Turkey in the summer. In his 8 non-domestic games this season, he’s shown 40 yellow cards and – crucially 4 reds. Two of those came in his last 3 Champions League games. Over 4.5 cards with BetMGM is 7/5.
For those wanting an outright tip, I’d say 7/2 with Betfred is a massive price on the draw given that odds-on Real Madrid only need the draw in order to progress. But I’m napping the shots market. Over 30.5 shots at 6/4.