Gavin Puszczalowskyi is looking ahead at the return of Formula 1
This weekend sees the return of F1 after a mid-season break, and it returns to the home of Verstappen. Well, almost, he was born 200km away in Belgium, but it is the Dutch GP.
Since the return of F1 to the coastal track at Zandvoort, Max has won all 3 races. It is therefore testament to the competitive improvement of McLaren and Mercedes that Verstappen is 7/4 in most places to win. He would normally be odds on. Ferrari are also bringing some upgrades this weekend to look at getting back into the fight for race wins.
But, look at the stats. Max has won none of the last 4 races, the first time since 2020 that Red Bull are winless in 4, and has only qualified pole in 1 of the last 6. So even though Max is 7/4, and still the favourite to win, it is worth looking elsewhere.
Here comes the rain again
And, then comes the rain. And, there could be quite a lot of it over the course of the 3 days, and that makes F1, which suddenly has become unpredictable, even more so.
The last rain effected race was the British GP, where seemingly from nowhere, George Russell claimed the win. So if heavens open for the race, why not have a look at Hamilton, 10/1 at AKBet or Russell, 11/1 to win at StarSports. They simply are too big.
As mentioned, Verstappen has qualified pole in just one of the last 6 races, with both Norris and Russell claiming two poles in the last 6 races, so Norris to qualify pole at 2/1 is tempting with Russell a massive 14/1 to stick his Mercedes on pole.
Safety Car
And if the rain does fall, as it did in 2023, then safety car yes at 4/6 at Ladbrokes is a play, not the best price but could be a clever bet. Zhou Guanyu had a big off last season in the rain that caused the race to be red flagged, so a safety car is a play.
And have a quick look at the “not classified market” This is for a driver to not finish 905 of the race. So to retire before the end effectively due to mechanical failure or crashing. If it’s raining, Logan Sargent is 7/1 and so is the aforementioned, Zhou Guanyu, both at Paddy Power.
Good luck, and whatever your bets are, please gamble responsibly.